CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-03-17T08:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-03-17T08:23ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45118/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The CME may also faintly be seen to the west in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. It is not clearly visible in GOES CCOR-1 or STEREO A COR2 imagery. The potential source is a filament eruption with liftoff seen starting around 2026-03-17T05:15Z in the southeast of STEREO A EUV 304. The filament liftoff is also visible in GOES SUVI 304 imagery, centered around S05W15. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T01:31Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 60318 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Mar 2026, 1235UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Mar 2026 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 041 Coronal mass ejections: The filament eruption reported yesterday, originating from around S05W10, is visible as a faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) E in STEREO-A COR-2 coronagraph data and may have a glancing blow at Earth from late on March 20.Lead Time: 12.82 hour(s)
Difference: -17.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-19T12:42Z
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